CryptoQuant Analyst: Bitcoin Has Entered the Final Phase of the Bull Cycle

An analyst from the CryptoQuant platform under the pseudonym AxelAdlerJr stated that Bitcoin is in the mature phase of the current bull market. According to his assessment, 504 days have passed since the last halving, which historically indicates the approach of the final stage of the cycle.

As confirmation, the expert cited the Value Days Destroyed (VDD) indicator, which takes into account the volume of coins realized. In March, the indicator rose sharply when the BTC rate reached $70,000, but subsequent waves of sales — near $98,000 and $117,000 — were significantly weaker.

According to the analyst, this indicates that long-term holders (LTH) are not eager to lock in profits en masse but prefer to sell off assets gradually. This approach reflects a “sustainable restructuring,” largely associated with institutional demand: new historical highs stimulate sales in small batches that the market can quickly absorb.

AxelAdlerJr predicts that the final peak of the cycle will be reached when the Peak Flag signal is triggered, when the market price exceeds the realized value of LTH assets by approximately 11 times. This moment, in his opinion, will coincide with a sharp increase in spending by experienced owners and short-term volatility. The likely window for this scenario is October–November 2025.

The expert also noted that reduced volatility has changed market behavior. Whereas previously LTH actively sold after each price jump, in the current cycle, sales occur less frequently and more measuredly. The only exception was a large-scale sale in the middle of the cycle, even before the halving.