Tephra Digital: Bitcoin Could Rise to $185,000 if Correlation with M2 and Gold Persists

Analysts from the investment company Tephra Digital have published a forecast suggesting that the price of Bitcoin could reach $167,000–$185,000 in the medium term if the correlation with the M2 money supply and the price of gold persists.

The study is based on two scenarios. The first scenario considers a 102-day lag between the dynamics of M2 and BTC. At the current growth rate (CAGR 330%), the cryptocurrency price could reach $167,000. The second scenario is based on a 200-day lag with gold: with a CAGR of 154%, the Bitcoin price could reach $185,000.

Experts note that the expansion of the M2 money supply indicates an increase in free liquidity in the economy, which is often directed towards riskier assets. According to Bitcoin CounterFlow, the correlation between Bitcoin and M2 has exceeded 80% in recent years, confirming a close relationship.

The expected reduction in the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate could also be a catalyst for M2 growth. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of policy easing at the September meeting is estimated at 99.7%.

As for gold, its correlation with Bitcoin remained positive (from 0.1 to 0.25) even during the cryptocurrency market correction in August 2025. According to Tephra Digital, maintaining such a trend over a 200-day horizon with rising gold prices will pave the way for a new BTC high.

The July 2025 report from WisdomTree also notes the increasing role of Bitcoin as an element of the “hard assets” pool. Its share reached 8%, indicating a growing connection of the first cryptocurrency with macroeconomic indicators, including M2 and gold. The same document forecasts Bitcoin’s price to rise to $250,000 and gold to $4,000 amid increasing inflationary pressure.