A Quarter of Bitcoin Treasury Companies Trade at a Discount to Reserve Value — K33 Research

According to a report by K33 Research, approximately 25% of public companies managing bitcoin treasuries are trading on the market at a discount relative to the value of their reserves in the primary cryptocurrency.

Experts analyzed the mNAV (Market-to-Net Asset Value) indicator, which reflects the ratio of a company’s market capitalization (including debt and preferred shares) to the net value of its bitcoin portfolio. A value above 1 indicates trading at a premium, below 1 — at a discount.

“When a company’s shares are valued below the net asset value, issuing new shares becomes dilutive — investors receive more ownership rights than the company receives in bitcoin value,” explained Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33 Research.

In September, the average mNAV in the sector fell to 2.8 from 3.76 in April. There is an asymmetry: discounts are typical for small DAT companies, while large players mostly trade at a premium.

However, there are exceptions. Strategy, the largest corporate holder of bitcoin, has a figure of 1.49 according to the company and 1.26 according to K33 calculations. “This reduces its ability to make further BTC purchases and indicates a decline in demand from one of the key buyers in the market,” noted Lunde.

A sharp decline was recorded at KindlyMD: its mNAV plummeted from 75 to 0.7, which also affected the company’s shares. Among other major holders with mNAV close to 1 or below are MARA, Twenty One Capital, Bitcoin Standard Treasury, and Semler Scientific.

According to K33 Research calculations, in September, DAT companies acquired an average of 1428 BTC per day — the lowest figure since May. Experts warn that a decline in activity from this category of investors could lead to increased pressure from sellers and a correction in the bitcoin market.