Experts: quantum threat to bitcoin could affect up to 10 million BTC

Chaincode Labs has published a report on the threats of quantum computers to bitcoin. The study indicates that between 4 and 10 million BTC could be vulnerable to hacking in the event of a cryptographically relevant quantum computer (CRQC). The greatest risk is associated with addresses where public keys have already been disclosed.

Satoshi era bitcoins, lost coins, and addresses with reused keys, including exchange wallets, remain at risk. These targets are of the greatest interest for attacks, as hacking a single address can yield hundreds of thousands of BTC.

Quantum attacks are divided into long-term – against old UTXOs, and short-term – when the key is disclosed in an incomplete transaction. Especially vulnerable are P2PK, P2MS and even relatively new P2TR scripts.

Experts predict that the probability of the emergence of CRQC in the next 10 years exceeds 50%. The US, UK, EU and China have already started the migration to quantum-resistant cryptography, setting deadlines in 2030-2035.

Quantum processor development is also accelerating, with Google and Microsoft demonstrating important technological breakthroughs in late 2024 and early 2025, bringing the realization of the threat closer.

The community is debating what to do with the vulnerable coins. Some suggest burning them to avoid redistribution, while others consider it a violation of bitcoin’s fundamental principle of ownership. The decision will affect the economics of the network and could become the subject of legal disputes.