Options signal fears of Bitcoin falling below $100,000

Derivatives investors have stepped up hedging against a possible decline in Bitcoin and Ethereum, according to data from the Derive.xyz platform. According to a report by The Block, there has been an increase in open interest in put options with an expiration date of August 29 — a typical sign of concerns about falling prices.

Put options allow an asset to be sold at a predetermined price, and demand for them usually increases in times of market uncertainty. Call options, on the other hand, give the right to buy an asset. When puts significantly dominate in terms of volume, this indicates negative asymmetry and a desire among participants to insure themselves against a market decline.

According to Derive, in the Ethereum segment, the volume of puts expiring at the end of the month exceeded the volume of calls by more than 10%. The most popular strikes are $3,200, $3,000, and $2,200. At the same time, ETH itself is trading at around $3,600, down 2.4% over the week. Derive analyst Sean Dawson believes this structure reflects moderately pessimistic expectations for the end of August.

In the case of Bitcoin, the situation looks even more alarming. The volume of open interest in put options is almost five times higher than the volume of calls. Contracts with a strike price of $95,000 stand out in particular, accounting for about half of the volume. Another 25% is accounted for by the $80,000 and $100,000 levels. BTC is currently trading at $113,862, down 3.1% over the past seven days.

According to Derive, the 30-day option asymmetry indicator for BTC fell from +2% to -2%, and for ETH from +6% to -2%. This indicates a shift in prevailing expectations from optimistic to defensive. At the same time, the predicted volatility is 35% for Bitcoin and 65% for Ether. The gap between the indicators has increased to 30%, indicating more turbulent fluctuations in Ethereum, despite a less pronounced bearish structure.

Probability estimates also indicate high uncertainty. According to Derive, the chances of ETH falling below $3,000 by the end of August are 25%, while the probability of it rising above $4,000 has increased from 15% to 30%. For Bitcoin, Dawson estimates the probability of a drop below $100,000 at 18%, indicating a high level of investor fear of sharp movements in the coming weeks.